Warning: ftp_nlist() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 438

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_nlist() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 438

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_nlist() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 438

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_nlist() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 438

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_nlist() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 438

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_nlist() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 438

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_nlist() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 438

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_nlist() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 438

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_nlist() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 438

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_nlist() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 438

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_nlist() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 438

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_nlist() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 438

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_nlist() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 438

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_nlist() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 438

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_nlist() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 438

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_nlist() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 438

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_nlist() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 438

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_nlist() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 438

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230

Warning: ftp_pwd() expects parameter 1 to be resource, null given in /home/customer/www/property-blog-dubai.com/public_html/wp-admin/includes/class-wp-filesystem-ftpext.php on line 230
Wohin bewegt sich Dubais Immobilienmarkt – Nord oder Süd? – Property Blog Dubai

Wohin bewegt sich Dubais Immobilienmarkt – Nord oder Süd?

with No Comments

Das Dubai Land Department (DLD) veröffentlichte kürzlich seine Transaktionsstatistiken für das abgelaufene Jahr 2015, die eine Zunahme der Anzahl der Transaktionen in Höhe von 8% gegenüber der Vorperiode ausweisen.

Hierauf basierend ließen sich einige Kommentatoren dazu hinreißen, die vorangegangenen Preisrückgänge als ein Phänomen der Vergangenheit zu erklären. Dies ist, vereinfacht gesagt, Nonsens. Es ist kein Geheimnis, dass das Handelsvolumen keine Aussage zur Richtung des Marktes zulässt und nach einer tiefergehenden Recherche verlangt, um ein klareres Bild zu erzeugen.

Süden: Dollar-Stärke, Ölpreis

Die Risiken liegen klar in den makroökonomischen Faktoren. Mit der Kopplung des VAE-Dirham an den US-Dollar drückt die Aufwertung des Greenback gegenüber den wichtigsten Währungen auf die Auslandsnachfrage. Darüber hinaus ergänzen bzw. verstärken die Ölpreis-Baisse sowie die Kapitalabflüsse aus Emerging Markets diese Effekte. Nicht zuletzt sind der düstere Ausblick beim weltweiten (und speziell chinesischen) Wachstum und hiermit verbunden korrigierende Finanzmärkte alles andere als förderlich für den Anlageappetit internationaler Investoren nach Immobilien in Dubai.

Norden: KGVs und Nachfrage-/Angebotskonstellation

Dahingegen weisen die meisten relevanten Marktparameter (ebenso wie „weiche Indikatoren“) daraufhin, dass der Markt tatsächlich einen Boden gefunden haben könnte, der möglicherweise die Basis für den kommenden Zyklus bildet. Hierzu zählen:

  • Insgesamt stabile, in manchen Arealen steigende Mieten, die Renditen von bis zu zehn Prozent ermöglichen
  • Prognostizierte Steigerung von 6,5% p.a. bei der Nachfrage nach Wohnimmobilien, wohingegen das künftige Angebot lediglich mit 3,6% p.a. zunimmt (Quelle: Phidar Advisory).

Insbesondere der letztgenannte Aspekt erscheint umso einleuchtender vor dem Hintergrund, dass zwischen erstem und drittem Quartal 2015 prognosegemäß 25.000 Einheiten hätten übergeben werden sollen, vermeintlich führend zu einem Angebotsüberhang von 5.000 Einheiten für diesen Zeitraum. Tatsächlich jedoch wurden lediglich 9.397 Wohneinheiten an die Käufer übergeben, so dass sich der prognostizierte Angebotsüberhang  in ein tatsächliches Angebotsdefizit von über 10.000 Einheiten verwandelte (Quelle: REIDIN).

In Annäherung an die Weltausstellung in Dubai im Jahr 2020 und der daraus resultierenden, erheblichen Ausweitung der Endnutzernachfrage nach Immobilien wird ein weiterer Preisaufschwung vermehrt wahrscheinlich. Dies auch vor dem Hintergrund des gigantischen fiskalpolitischen Schubs, den die Infrastrukturinvestitionen in Höhe von geschätzten acht Milliarden Dollar (föderale Infrastrukturinvestments in Straßen, Schienenverkehr etc. nicht mitgerechnet) in den kommenden Jahren erzeugen werden.

Zusammenfassung:

Schlussfolgernd und vor dem Hintergrund einer schwächelnden Weltkonjunktur sehe ich die Immobilienpreise in Dubai sich für einen Teil des Jahres 2016 gegebenenfalls noch leicht rückläufig entwickeln. Über diesen Zeithorizont hinaus jedoch dürften die lokalen Marktgegebenheiten maßgeblich sein und dafür sorgen, dass der Markt in seine nächste Aufwärtsbewegung eintritt.

Wenn Ihnen dieser Beitrag gefallen hat, können Sie den Newsletter hier abonnieren.

Der Autor Christian Atzert berät institutionelle Investoren zu Immobilientransaktionen und betreut Mietportfolios in Dubai seit dem Jahr 2007. Sollten Sie Rückfragen oder Anmerkungen zu diesem Artikel haben, kontaktieren Sie Herrn Atzert bitte unter author@property-blog-dubai.com.